Despite ambitious global targets set to transition away from fossil fuels, the world is currently off track to meet the goal of tripling renewable electricity generation by 2030.
An analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) of nearly 150 countries’ policies indicates a shortfall, though there are promising signs of accelerated progress.
Global Renewable Energy Targets
Last December, countries agreed to triple renewable power by the end of the decade, a crucial step for a swift transition from fossil fuels.
However, the IEA’s analysis reveals that, under current policies and trends, global renewable generation capacity would only roughly double in developed countries and slightly more than double globally by 2030.
Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, emphasized the importance of turning promises into actionable plans: “The tripling target is ambitious but achievable – though only if governments quickly turn promises into plans of action.
Countries worldwide have a major opportunity to accelerate progress towards a more secure, affordable, and sustainable energy system.”
Current Progress and Challenges
The IEA’s analysis found that current policies would result in about 8,000GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, approximately 70% of the necessary 11,000GW needed to meet the tripling goal agreed at the Cop28 UN climate summit in Dubai last year.
Solar power is set to make up about half of this capacity, with wind accounting for about a quarter.
Heymi Bahar, a senior energy analyst at the IEA and co-author of the report “Cop28: Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge,” acknowledged the gap but remained optimistic: “There is a gap, but the gap is bridgeable.”
Last year saw a record increase in renewable capacity, with about 560GW added – a 64% increase from the previous year. Solar and wind remain cheaper than fossil fuels, and the IEA does not anticipate this changing.
Additionally, issues with wind power component supply are being resolved, and some wind companies are returning to profitability.
Leading by Example: China’s Renewable Energy Surge
China has been a notable leader in renewable energy progress, adding more new renewable generation capacity last year than the rest of the world combined. Bahar highlighted this achievement: “It was incredible.
Everyone was very surprised. One of the reasons is that solar and wind are so much cheaper than coal.”
The Need for Grid Upgrades
A major barrier to progress in many regions is the outdated electricity grid infrastructure. Bahar emphasized the need for regulatory action and investment in grid upgrades: “Countries have been allocating lots of support to renewables, but the grid has been forgotten.”
Climate Finance and Developing Countries
Climate finance is a crucial topic under discussion as governments meet in Bonn, Germany, to review pledges made at Cop28 and prepare for Cop29 in Azerbaijan. Increasing finance for developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with extreme weather impacts is essential.
Including renewable energy plans in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – due for an update ahead of the Cop30 summit in Brazil next year – is a critical first step for these countries to secure the necessary funding.
Some Optimism
While the world is currently off track to meet the goal of tripling renewable electricity generation by 2030, the IEA report underscores that the target is still within reach if governments act swiftly and decisively.
With solar and wind power leading the way, and significant advancements in renewable energy capacity, there is hope that the gap can be bridged.
Upgrading electricity grids and securing climate finance for developing countries will be vital in achieving these ambitious targets and ensuring a sustainable energy future.
World Falling Short on Tripling Renewable Electricity Generation by 2030: IEA Report
Despite ambitious global targets set to transition away from fossil fuels, the world is currently off track to meet the goal of tripling renewable electricity generation by 2030.
Here are the key insights from the IEA report:
1. Global Renewable Energy Targets:
Countries agreed to triple renewable power by the end of the decade. Current policies and trends suggest global renewable generation capacity will only roughly double in developed countries and slightly more than double globally by 2030.
2. Turning Promises into Action:
Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, emphasized the importance of actionable plans. Governments need to turn promises into plans of action to achieve the tripling target.
3. Current Progress and Challenges:
The IEA’s analysis indicates that current policies would result in about 8,000GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. This is approximately 70% of the necessary 11,000GW needed to meet the tripling goal.
4. Solar and Wind Power:
Solar power is set to make up about half of the capacity, with wind accounting for about a quarter. Last year saw a record increase in renewable capacity, with about 560GW added – a 64% increase from the previous year.
5. Leading by Example: China’s Surge:
China added more new renewable generation capacity last year than the rest of the world combined. Solar and wind are significantly cheaper than coal, driving this progress.
6. The Need for Grid Upgrades:
Outdated electricity grid infrastructure is a major barrier. Regulatory action and investment in grid upgrades are essential.
7. Climate Finance and Developing Countries:
Climate finance is crucial. Increasing finance for developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with extreme weather impacts is essential. Including renewable energy plans in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) is a critical first step.
8. Some Optimism:
While the world is currently off track, the IEA report underscores that the target is still within reach if governments act swiftly and decisively. Upgrading electricity grids and securing climate finance for developing countries will be vital in achieving these ambitious targets.
